Original-Research: Aves One AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Aves One AG

Unternehmen: Aves One AG
ISIN: DE000A168114

Anlass der Studie: Researchstudie (Anno)
Empfehlung: Buy
Kursziel: 14.50 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2021
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker; Marcel Goldmann

Concentration on high-margin areas after sale of the maritime container
segment; business development to be even more stable; target price raised

On 18 March 2021, Aves One AG announced the sale of its sea container
business, which means that the company's focus in future will be on the two
business segments 'rail' and 'swap bodies'. With the discontinuation of the
sea container business, Aves One AG is now in a position to implement an
even stronger focus on the high-growth and significantly more profitable
rail and swap body segments. At the same time, the reliability of its
business development will increase due to, among other things, the
elimination of exchange rate effects, and the overall group profitability
will increase significantly.

In the past financial year 2020, which still included the maritime
container segment, the company managed to achieve revenue growth of 6.1% to
EUR123.85 million (previous year: EUR116.78 million) despite pandemic-
related burdens. This was driven exclusively by a 10.2% increase in revenue
in the Rail segment to EUR83.90 million (previous year: EUR76.13 million),
which compensated for the -6.1% decline in revenue in the Container segment
to EUR37.05 million (previous year: EUR39.46 million). The expansion of the
wagon fleet and a slight increase in rental rates in the Rail segment
contributed to successful development.

While the EBITDA of EUR81.80 million (previous year: EUR84.60 million) was
moderately below the previous year's value, in particular due to higher
maintenance expenses and in connection with losses from the sale of sea
containers, the EBIT fell significantly to EUR9.64 million (previous year:
EUR51.70 million). This is due to the significantly higher depreciation and
amortisation of EUR72.14 million (previous year: EUR32.90 million), in
which the extraordinary impairment requirement of the sea container
business sold in 2021 was booked in advance. The sale of the maritime
container portfolio at a purchase price of USD 182.5 million (EUR 147.10
million) was below the previous balance sheet valuation, so that an
impairment of EUR 33.04 million was already taken into account as at 31
December 2020.

For Aves One AG, the current financial year 2021 will also be characterised
by the effects of the sale of the maritime container portfolio, which is
expected to be completed in the coming months. Taking into account the
discontinuation of the sea container sales, the Aves One Board of Directors
forecasts sales revenues of more than EUR 100 million and an EBITDA of more
than EUR 70 million for the current financial year. We base our forecasts
on the company's guidance and expect revenues of EUR 104.88 million and
EBITDA of EUR 73.40 million for 2021. For the coming financial years, we
expect further revenue increases of 12.7% (2022e) and 7.9% (2023e), which
are based on a further increase in the asset portfolio. For the coming
financial years, we conservatively expect only a moderate increase in the
EBITDA margin, which should primarily be supported by a slightly
disproportionately low development of overhead costs. Higher economies of
scale are possible here.

We have determined a new target price of EUR 14.50 (previously: EUR 13.50)
within the framework of the DCF valuation model. The price target increase
is a result of the estimates for the 2023 financial year included in the
concrete estimation period for the first time, which provides a higher
basis for the continuity phase of our model. We continue to assign the BUY

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Date and time of completion of the research report: 04.06.2021 (01:42 pm)
Date and time of first publication: 07.06.2021 (1:00 pm)

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