Original-Research: Cogia AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu Cogia AG
Unternehmen: Cogia AG
Anlass der Studie: Research Report (Initial Coverage)
Kursziel: 3.72 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2022
Letzte Ratingänderung: -
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger; Felix Haugg
Dynamic growth with patented semantic solutions in the area of 'Big Data
Cogia AG is a full-service provider of AI-based, patented, semantic
solutions and services in the field of 'Big Data Analytics', with a focus
on customer experience, monitoring and engagement. Cogia's goal is to
support its customers, whether companies, associations, or public
authorities, in the optimal use of available information by making it
accessible in terms of content and preparing it in a structured manner
using automated processes - in two respects. On the one hand, it is a
matter of discovering hidden company- or organization-specific knowledge
within the internal data and the customer's intranet. On the other hand,
Cogia AG enables companies to monitor their target groups via the Internet,
build lasting customer relationships and create added value for their
The products of Cogia AG are based on a self-developed and innovative AI-
based software solution. The AI software solutions clearly set the
company's products apart from the competition. This reflects the company's
more than 10 years of research and development work in this area, as well
as their continuous further development of software solutions. Through its
extensive product portfolio, Cogia AG provides its customers a close
integration of technical and editorial services, so that customers can be
optimally and holistically supported in every phase of a project.
The innovative product solutions of Cogia AG have already demonstrated
their market maturity in practical tests in numerous projects with renowned
customers. Thus, the automotive groups Volkswagen and BMW are already among
their customers, as well as the Fraunhofer Institute or the Free State of
Bavaria. In addition to their further development of software solutions,
their focus is on a further roll-out at Cogia AG.
As of the financial year 2020, sales amounted to EUR 0.42m (previous year:
EUR 0.33m) with an EBITDA of EUR 0.13m (previous year: EUR 0.16m) and a net
result of EUR -0.32m (previous year: EUR 0.11m). Sales revenues are still
at a low level, but there are already good customer relationships with
major customers such as BMW, Lufthansa, and VW with whom the company can
As of the first half of 2021, revenue was EUR 0.34m, EBITDA was EUR 0.09m,
and the net result was EUR -0.39m. Annualized, the primary goal of revenue
growth was thus achieved. In addition, a partnership was concluded with
VIMATO, a micro-influencer platform.
We expect dynamic growth for Cogia AG. The business model of recurring
revenues and the already good contacts to major customers should enable
significant revenue increases. We forecast revenue growth in the current
fiscal year 2021 to EUR 1.05m, followed by EUR 1.93m in 2022 and EUR 3.55m
in 2023. The scalable business model should allow significant earnings
improvements. We expect EBITDA to increase from EUR 0.07m (2021) to EUR
0.17m (2022) and EUR 0.89m (2023).
Our forecasts do not yet include inorganic revenues. Cogia also plans to
grow via debt capital. The funds are to be raised on a deal-by-deal basis.
Management already has an extensive pipeline of potential targets of around
Based on our DCF model, we have determined a fair value per share of EUR
3.72 and assign a Buy rating.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
Date and time of completion of the study: 15.12.2021 (15:40) German version: 13.12.2021 (17:44)
Date and time of the first disclosure of the study: 21.12.2021 (10:00) German version: 14.12.2021 (10:00)
Validity of the target price: until max. 31.12.2022
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