Original-Research: Aves One AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Aves One AG

Unternehmen: Aves One AG
ISIN: DE000A168114

Anlass der Studie: Research Report (Anno)
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 12.80 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2019
Letzte Ratingänderung: -
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger

The strong growth should continue. Further margin improvements should be
achieved as a result of the scalable business model.

In financial year 2018, Aves One AG increased its revenue significantly and
also achieved a disproportionate improvement in earnings. We assume that
this trend will continue in the future. In financial year 2018, revenue
increased by 45.4% to EUR 77.68 million (previous year: EUR 53.43 million).
The key factors for this revenue growth were further assets under
management (AUM) acquired in 2017 and in 2018. In particular, the NACCO
transaction in the third quarter of 2018 led to a significant increase in
AUM. Overall, AUM increased by 83.1% in financial year 2018 to EUR 820.93
million (previous year: EUR 448.46 million). Due to the large NACCO
transaction, the company also brought the original plan for EUR 1 billion
AuM forward from 2020 to 2019.

A disproportionate improvement in earnings was achieved as a result of
strict cost discipline and a lean management approach. EBITDA increased by
79.3% to EUR 52.19 million (previous year: EUR 29.11 million) leading to an
improvement in the margin from 54.5% (2017) to 67.2% (2018). In particular,
the cost of materials ratio increased again, because of the further
increase in capacity utilisation. As a whole, a net profit adjusted for
non-cash FX effects of EUR 3.66 million was achieved (previous year: EUR
-13.35 million).

Guidance for the 2019 financial year is based on revenue of at least EUR
110 million, EBITDA of at least EUR 80 million and assets under management
of at least EUR 1 billion. We consider this guidance to be conservative and
assume AuM of EUR 1.03 billion and forecast additional revenue amounting to
EUR 118.10 million in 2019. We assume that the focus will continue to be on
the Rail segment and that the Container segment will be expanded
opportunistically. In particular, the NACCO transaction is expected to
contribute to revenue for the entire financial year 2019. In the Container
segment, we expect a slight decline in capacity utilisation, but this
should be more than compensated by rising lease prices. For the Rail
segment, we are assuming that the balanced portfolio will be expanded
further. In this way, in the 2018 financial year an extremely cyclically
independent segment was built up by the approx. 20% holding in rail tank
cars, whereas the company can participate in the higher growth performance
in, for example, the Intermodal segment.

Strict cost discipline and a lean management approach should result in
disproportionately improved earnings with increasing revenue. We expect
EBITDA to increase by 65.0% to EUR 86.13 million (previous year: EUR 52.19
million), a margin improvement from 67.2% (2017) to 72.9% (2018). In our
opinion, average financing costs should continue to decline as the Rail
segment will generally see more favourable conditions. We are therefore
forecasting a net profit of EUR 10.96 million in 2019, which represents a
very high net margin of 9.3%.

Through the scalable business model, further margin improvements should be
achieved in the medium term. We are currently anticipating a continuation
of the high growth momentum and, against the backdrop of the higher
forecast level, we have issued a stock price target of EUR 12.80 (so far:
EUR 12.10) so we therefore give this a BUY rating.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Jörg Grunwald
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR. Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,5b,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
Datum und Zeitpunkt der Fertigstellung der Studie: 27.05.2019 (16:55 Uhr)
Datum und Zeitpunkt der ersten Weitergabe: 28.05.2019 (09:00 Uhr)
Gültigkeit des Kursziels: bis max. 31.12.2019

-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.