Original-Research: KPS AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu KPS AG

Unternehmen: KPS AG
ISIN: DE000A1A6V48

Anlass der Studie: Research Report (Anno)
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 13.20 EUR
Letzte Ratingänderung: -
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Cosmin Filker

Return to high double-digit margin level achieved. Further potential from
internationalisation in sight.

The past financial year 2017/18 was characterised by costs of acquisitions
as well as by falling revenues from a major customer. Thus, the historical
momentum of double-digit growth was not continued and the EBITDA margin
dropped. However, this development has already been reversed in the current
financial year 2018/19. As early as in the first quarter of 2018/19, the
historically high margin levels were achieved once again. We expect that
this development will be able to be carried over for the full financial
year 2018/19.

In the past financial year 2017/18, revenue increased by 7.4% to €172.22
million (previous year: €160.30 million). While a major customer was
responsible for a drop in revenue of €18 million, this was well offset by
revenue contributions from acquisitions (€19.5 million). In addition, new
transformation and consulting projects contributed to the further increase
in revenue.

In terms of profit, an EBITDA of €20.02 million was achieved compared to
€26.41 million in the previous year. Thus, the EBITDA margin of 16.5% (FY
2016/17) dropped to 11.6% (FY 2017/18). However, in comparison to the
previous year, the result quality improved as a result of a significant
reduction in own work capitalised. Own work capitalised fell by 44.9% to
€2.83 million (previous year: €5.14 million). The background to this
development was mainly increased personnel expenses from the acquisitions.
In future, however, this should be extremely positive for KPS, as the most
important resource for a consulting company is staff, which are also
generally difficult to obtain. Furthermore, thanks to the Spanish company,
the average labour costs were reduced further, which should have a positive
impact on margin development in the medium term.

The company’s current guidance is €170 to €180 million in revenue and an
EBITDA of €22 to €27 million. The guidance shows that the company is
increasingly focusing on an improvement in earnings and less on revenue
growth in the current year. Excellent results have already been presented
in the first quarter, with revenues increased by 16.5% to €44.4 million
(previous year: €38.1 million) and a vastly improved EBITDA, which rose by
100% to €6.6 million (previous year: €3.3 million). Accordingly, the EBITDA
margin significantly increased from 8.7% (Q1 17/18) to 14.9% (Q1 18/19).
Extrapolated for the full year, this would result in revenue of €177.6
million and an EBITDA of €26.4 million. Accordingly, the upper end of the
guidance would be reached, provided that the following quarters are
similarly positive.

For the current financial year 2018/19, we assume that revenue of €179.97
million will be generated and EBITDA of €26.47 million will be achieved.
Our forecasts are therefore at the upper end of the guidance. We expect
that, in the medium term, the cost burdens will continue to fall and that
the cost-saving measures will take effect. Furthermore, in the long term,
with the industrialisation of the consulting approach and the lower wage
level in Spain, further economies of scale should be able to be achieved.
On the basis of our forecast, we are increasing the stock price target to
€13.20 (previously: €12.50) and we continue to assign it the BUY rating.  

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Jörg Grunwald
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
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Datum und Zeitpunkt der Fertigstellung der Studie: 05.03.2019 (14:35 Uhr)
Datum und Zeitpunkt der ersten Weitergabe: 06.03.2019 (11:00 Uhr)
Gültigkeit des Kursziels: bis max. 31.12.2019

-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

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