Original-Research: MagForce AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu MagForce AG

Unternehmen: MagForce AG

Anlass der Studie: Research Report (Anno)
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 13.50 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31/12/2020
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann

USA approval underway, Roll-out plan in Europe is currently being
implemented, Sound financial base following capital increase

MagForce AG has made a significant in obtaining approval for prostate
treatment in the USA. Following FDA approval for a registration trial at
the beginning of 2018, MagForce AG enrolled its first patients in mid-2018.
With the announcement dated 27.08.2019, the company announced the
successful completion of the first phase of study. During this study phase,
the treatment processes were successfully established with only minor side
effects in the treated patients. In the next stage of the study the
technology aims to be tested on up to 110 patients in three urological
centres by the next financial year. The aim of the registration trial is to
demonstrate that prostate cancer patients are able to remain in the Active
Surveillance programmes for longer periods of time. A longer stay in such a
programme would imply that the progression of the disease is stable, which
means that there is no need for treatments with a large number of side
effects. According to our expectations, market approval should be complete
by Q3/Q4 2020 and, accordingly, should ensure an increase in treatment
revenues in this area from the end of 2020.

MagForce AG reached further milestones in the 2018 financial year in its
efforts to promote its self-developed technology and to obtain approval for
medical device commercialisation in the USA. Expansion plans continued in
Europe with NanoTherm(R) technology, which has been approved for the
treatment of malignant brain tumours. Following the development of the
mobile NanoTherm(R) system in the past financial year, two cooperation
agreements have now been concluded with treatment centres. The mobile
treatment system was installed for the first time in April 2019 at the
Independent Public Clinical Hospital No. 4 in Lublin, Poland. Another
cooperation was concluded with the Paracelsus Clinic in Zwickau, Germany,
with a further mobile treatment centre to be installed in the second half
of 2019.

At the same time, the Company should be in a position to increase its
commercial treatment revenues in Europe too, which now are at a very low
level. The basis for this should partly be the recently opened treatment
centres and partly the continued expansion plans. The mobile system allows
new cooperations to be implemented quickly as there is no need for a fixed
installation within the hospital infrastructure. In addition to expansion
in Germany, the company intends to gain the initial market entry in Spain
and Italy in the near future.

Our forecasts indicate a significant increase in commercial treatment
revenues for Europe, particularly from the 2020 financial year on. We have
assumed in our forecasts that the development of the much larger segment in
the USA will take effect from the end of the 2020 financial year. This
should enable MagForce AG to achieve a larger number of treatments quite
quickly. Accordingly, the volume of sales should rise significantly from
2021 onwards, reaching a sustainable EBITDA break-even point.

We have calculated a new stock price target of EUR13.50 (previously:
EUR15.30) using the updated DCF valuation model. The reduced stock price
target is due in part to the delay in market approval for the treatment of
prostate cancer in the USA. Partly though, we have set a slightly more
conservative revenue and earnings target for Europe. We have also taken
into account a dilution effect as a consequence of the recent capital
increase (1.18 million new shares at EUR4.25 per share). We continue to
assign a BUY rating.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Jörg Grunwald
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR. Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,6a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
Date and time of completion: 10/09/2019 (10:55 am)
Date and time of first distribution: 10/09/2019 (2:00 pm)

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